Bitcoin Still in Death Cross as Jobs Miss Cuts Rate-Hike Odds

A soft July payrolls print pulled September rate-hike odds down. It gives investors in risk assets hope, but Bitcoin remains in bear territory.

The top 3

  1. Top 3 Biggest Bitcoin Price Drops: Bitcoin's largest percentage drop was nearly 99% during the Mt. Gox flash crash in June 2011, followed by an 84% decline in the 2018 bear market, and an 83% crash in April 2013 due to Mt. Gox issues.
  2. Bitcoin's Fastest 3 Recoveries After Major Dips: After its March 2020 COVID-19 crash, Bitcoin doubled in price within six weeks, showing a strong recovery. Historically, Bitcoin has often seen significant rebounds within two to three months following a death cross, with average gains ranging from 15% to 26%. The crypto has also experienced multiple recoveries to new highs after 50-99% crashes.
  3. Historical Impact of "Death Cross" on Bitcoin: Historically, the Bitcoin "death cross" is a lagging indicator, meaning it reflects a slowdown that has already occurred rather than predicting future crashes, and has often marked local bottoms before significant recoveries. While short-term returns after a death cross can be mixed, average returns after 90 days and one year have been positive, with one-year returns averaging +88.9%.

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