Preseason Success to Regular Season Playoff Conversion Rate

While preseason success doesn't always directly translate, a 2016 analysis showed teams winning their Preseason Week 3 game netted 23% more regular season wins, and 50% or more of playoff teams each year were Preseason Week 3 winners. However, other analyses suggest a weak correlation, with winning all preseason games not being a strong predictor of regular season success. Historically, 30 out of 38 Super Bowl champions (78.9%) had a preseason winning percentage of .500 or higher.

The top 3

  1. Preseason Point Differential: A Stronger Playoff Indicator: Since 2009, teams finishing the preseason with a point differential of +60 or more have historically converted to playoff berths at an 85.7% rate (6 out of 7 teams), with two even going on to win the Super Bowl.
  2. Undefeated Preseason: Poor Predictor for Playoff Berths: Going undefeated in the preseason is a weak indicator for regular season success; only 5 out of 16 (31.25%) undefeated teams from 2021-2023 made the playoffs, and none won the Super Bowl. Historically, teams with winless preseasons have even shown a slightly higher playoff success rate (45.45%) compared to undefeated teams (36.36%).
  3. Super Bowl Winners' Surprisingly Mixed Preseason Records: Many Super Bowl champions have had average or even losing preseason records, challenging the idea that preseason dominance is crucial for ultimate success. Notable examples include the 1982 Washington Redskins (0-4 preseason), the 2021 Los Angeles Rams (0-3), and the 2022 and 2023 Kansas City Chiefs (both 0-3).

Sources

Open the full topic