Preseason Performance vs. Regular Season Reality for QBs

Analyzing how much preseason quarterback performance truly predicts regular season success, including historical examples of both breakouts and busts.

The top 3

  1. QBs Who Shined in Preseason but Struggled in Regular Season: Many rookie quarterbacks who perform well in the preseason often struggle in the regular season due to simplified defensive schemes and playing against second- or third-string players. DeShone Kizer (2017) and Nathan Peterman (2017) are classic examples, both having stellar preseasons followed by disappointing regular season performances with numerous interceptions.
  2. Unexpected Regular Season QB Breakouts After Quiet Preseason: While not explicitly detailed in the search results, the general consensus is that preseason performance has little correlation with regular season success, implying that quarterbacks can have quiet preseasons and still break out. For example, some studies suggest that poor to average PFF pass grading for rookie quarterbacks in the preseason doesn't strongly predict regular season grades.
  3. Correlation Between Preseason Performance and Regular Season Wins: The correlation between preseason results and regular season success has significantly decreased over the past 40 years. In recent years, there's little to no positive correlation between preseason performance and regular season win percentage, with some studies even finding a slight negative association, though it's often statistically insignificant. However, a simple linear regression model suggests a small but statistically significant correlation where a 1% increase in preseason winning percentages correlates to a 0.178% increase in regular season winning percentages, although the R-squared value indicates very little variability is predicted.

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