2050: The Podium Flips — and the Wildcard Is Indonesia

Goldman Sachs projects the 2050 top five as China, US, India, Indonesia and Germany — with China seizing No. 1 around 2035.

The top 3

1. Circa 2035: The Year America Loses No. 1: Goldman Sachs Research projects China overtakes the US as the world's largest economy around 2035 — the first change at the very top since the 1890s.
2. India's Century: No. 3 by 2050, Nipping at America by 2075: With a working-age population expanding until about 2055, India is projected 3rd by 2050 — and by 2075 Goldman sees it (just) overtaking the US, in the biggest power shift since America's own rise.
3. The Dark Horse: Indonesia Crashes the Top 4: Goldman's 2050 board puts Indonesia 4th — ahead of Germany and leapfrogging Japan and the UK — the only economy outside today's top five to break into the race.

Sources

• Goldman Sachs: The global economy in 2075 — growth slows as Asia rises
• CEPR: The path to 2075 — slower global growth, but convergence remains intact

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