AGI Timelines: Whose Bet Wins?

Kurzweil bets 2029, LeCun says scaling never gets there — the boldest AGI dates, ranked soonest to latest.

The top 3

Team Soon: AGI This Decade: Four insiders betting human-level (or 'powerful') AI arrives before 2030.
Team Not So Fast: The Skeptics: Three heavyweights say today's LLMs are the wrong road to AGI entirely.
The Scoreboard: How We'd Even Know: Three yardsticks the debate actually fights over — and the latest scores.